Novak Djokovic will battle Carlos Alcaraz — and Father Time — in the US Open semifinals on Friday night.
Djokovic, 38, showed a little bit of everything in his win over Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals, and now he sits two wins away from his 25th Grand Slam title.
The only problem is that those two wins will likely need to come against Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, the top two players in the world and the winners of the last seven majors.
Does Djokovic, who is +300 to beat Alcaraz, hold any value as an underdog on Friday?
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic odds, prediction
You can run out of superlatives pretty quickly when talking about how dominant Alcaraz has been since bursting onto the scene a few years ago.
The Spaniard has won 22 titles, five Grand Slams and has won 81 percent of his professional matches. He is just 22 years old.
What sets Alcaraz apart from other elite players on the ATP Tour is his ability to win matches in different ways. He’s a superb defender and a relentless competitor, but he can also play an aggressive blend of tennis thanks to his all-world shot-making. Not too unlike Djokovic during the Serb’s salad days.
And while Djokovic is past his prime, he’s managed his schedule quite a bit this season, skipping every tournament besides the Grand Slams since the French Open.
That should mean that Djokovic will have his legs on Friday, which is a non-negotiable against Alcaraz, who will want this to be a grueling match.
Djokovic will know that and will need to rely on his ability to peak at the exact right times in a match to swing momentum his way.
We saw Djokovic do just that against Fritz in the final game of the first set, as the native of Belgrade fended off break point after break point to get a lead that he didn’t relinquish.
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Alcaraz has only lost two matches since March, but Djokovic does own a 5-3 edge in the head-to-head, including wins over Carlitos at the 2024 Paris Olympics on clay and in January at the Australian Open.
Djokovic at +300 is worth a shot.
The Play: Djokovic +300 (bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
