Dodgers vs. Blue Jays World Series preview: Who Has the Edge?
USA TODAY Sports’ Gabe Lacques breaks down both sides of the upcoming World Series between the Dodgers and Blue Jays.
Sports Pulse
How will this year’s World Series play out? Using the Dynasty League Baseball online simulation, USA TODAY Sports’ Steve Gardner and DLB designer Mike Cieslinski will pre-play each game to provide some insight into the key matchups and strategy fans can expect to see in the Fall Classic.
Tied 1-1 heading to Dodger Stadium, the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers are both looking for the upper hand after each team recorded a convincing victory in Toronto. That’s the situation in both our Sim Series and the actual World Series.
Once again, we fall victim to the Blue Jays switching up their pitching rotation as they call on veteran Max Scherzer to take the mound in Game 3. Mad Max is coming off a strong performance in Game 4 of the ALCS, when he held the Seattle Mariners to two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. But in our simulation, Scherzer’s struggles during the regular season (5.19 ERA, 19 home runs allowed in 85 innings) didn’t even get him a spot on the roster, so Shane Bieber (whom the Jays will start in Game 4) gets the call here.
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Game 3 simulation
For the first time in the 2025 Sim Series, we have a close game that goes down to the wire. Although it didn’t start out that way …
The Dodgers jumped on Jays starter Shane Bieber for four runs in the bottom of the second inning — thanks largely to the bottom of the lineup. Clutch playoff performer Kikė Hernandez ripped a two-out, two-run double to open the scoring. Andy Pages singled him in and Shohei Ohtani clubbed an RBI double to put L.A. in front.
Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow cruised through the first three innings, but ran into trouble in the fourth when he walked Bo Bichette and gave up a two-run homer to Daulton Varsho.
Varsho got the Jays to within one in the sixth inning with a sac fly that scored Bichette to make it 4-3 Dodgers and set the stage for a frantic finish.
Glasnow turned things over to Roki Sasaki to begin the eighth inning and he breezed through the heart of the Jays order. But in the ninth, Addison Barger drew a one-out walk and Alejandro Kirk was hit by a pitch. After a groundout put runners on second and third, the Jays called on Joey Loperfido to pinch-hit.
Loperfido — a rarely used outfielder the Jays dropped from their ALCS roster in favor of 1B Ty France — grounded a Sasaki splitter through the right side of the infield, plating the tying run and setting up a play at the plate with Kirk barreling home with the go-ahead run.
Teoscar Hernandez’s throw to the plate was late as the Blue Jays took the lead for the first time.
BOX SCORE: Blue Jays 5, Dodgers 4
FULL PLAY-BY-PLAY: Jays come through in a pinch with thrilling Game 3 win
The Toronto bullpen was outstanding in this one. After Bieber departed with two outs in the fourth inning, the combination of Brendon Little, Louis Varland, Mason Fluharty and Tommy Nance tossed 5 1/3 innings of scoreless relief — allowing a total of two baserunners over that span.
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Game 3 projections, analysis
So what does our simulation tell us about what we can expect when the real Game 3 takes place?
- Perhaps the Blue Jays decided to go wtih Scherzer over Bieber as their Game 3 starter because they have a fully rested bullpen following the travel day. As was the case with starting rookie Trey Yesavage in Game 1, the possibility of a disaster outing with Scherzer is significant … so the relievers had better be ready.
- Also, keep in mind that the teams will be playing three games in three days, so both teams’ bullpen usage in Game 3 will have an impact on Games 4 and 5. The managers could lean on certain pitchers for two innings right away, but those relievers could have their availablity and/or effectiveness limited over the next two days.
- Speaking of the Jays bullpen, their trio of left-handers has helped keep the Dodgers’ lefty sluggers in check so far. Shohei Ohtani is hitting .273, Freddie Freeman is batting .154 with a home run and Max Muncy is hitting .091. (Through two games of the real World Series, that trio is hitting a combined .238 (5-for-21).
- Where’s Jeff Hoffman? Tommy Nance — who isn’t even on the Jays’ World Series roster, despite his 1.99 ERA in 31 2/3 regular-season innings — got the final out in Sim Series Game 3. His player card is far superior to Hoffman’s (4.37 ERA, 2.0 HR/9). And with they tying run at the plate in K. Henandez, Nance was the one we chose, leaving Hoffman free for Games 4 and 5.
- Should the real Game 3 come down to a play at the plate in the ninth inning, Dodgers outfielders Teoscar Hernandez, Kikė Hernandez and defensive replacement Alex Call all have average throwing arms. Center fielder Andy Pages is the only one who is above average.
- On the Jays’ side, Addison Barger has the strongest outfield arm on either team (a -3 in the Dynasty League Baseball rating system, with -4 being Hall of Fame caliber). However, Barger is rated as a D for his range, which makes him a risky play in close games. Nathan Lukes and Myles Straw have B ranges with slightly above-average arms in the corners. Center fielder Daulton Varsho has superior range (A) in center with an average arm.
