The Miami Dolphins (7-9) and New England Patriots (13-3) meet Sunday for a Week 18 game at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Dolphins vs. Patriots odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
The Patriots have already secured the AFC East Division title, but they’re looking to secure the No. 1 seed, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. The Denver Broncos face the LA Chargers at the same time, and Denver (13-3) is also in the hunt for the top spot.
Miami picked up a 20-17 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17 as a 5.5-point underdog as the Under (43) cashed. QB Quinn Ewers threw for 172 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs, while RB De’Von Achane ran for 83 yards. The latter is doubtful to play Sunday, so look for RB Jaylen Wright, who ran for 56 yards, to start. WR Theo Wease Jr. had a 63-yard TD reception, while TE Greg Dulcich added 5 receptions for 58 yards and a TD.
The Dolphins have won 5 of the past 7 games, but they’re just 2-3 against the spread (ATS) in the past 5. The Over has cashed in 3 of the past 4 outings.
New England thumped the New York Jets 42-10 on the road last week as a 13-point favorite as the Over (42.5) cashed. QB Drake Maye threw for 256 yards, 5 TDs and 0 INTs, while adding 22 rushing yards. RB TreVeyon Henderson rushed for 82 yards, while RB Rhamondre Stevenson had 47 rushing yards and a TD, while adding 55 receiving yards and a score. WR Stefon Diggs had 6 receptions for 101 yards and a TD, while TE Hunter Henry, WR Efton Chism III and TE Austin Hooper also added TD catches.
The Patriots are 3-1 ATS in the past 4 games, while the Over cashed in 4 in a row. New England has scored 23 or more points in 13 consecutive games.
In Week 2, the Patriots beat the Dolphins 33-27, covering as 2.5 points favorites as the Over (43) hit.
Dolphins at Patriots odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dolphins +500 (bet $100 to win $500) | Patriots -700 (bet $700 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Dolphins +11.5 (-110) | Patriots -11.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Dolphins at Patriots key injuries
Dolphins
- RB De’Von Achane (shoulder) doubtful
- LB Quinton Bell (illness) questionable
- C Aaron Brewer (neck) questionable
- LB Jordyn Brooks (hamstring)
- S Minkah Fitzpatrick (calf) out
- OT Austin Jackson (back, groin) questionable
- LB Chop Robinson (concussion) questionable
- PK Jason Sanders (hip) out
- WR Jaylen Waddle (ribs) questionable
Patriots
- LB Harold Landry III (knee) out
- LB Robert Spillane (ankle) out
- DL Khyiris Tonga (foot) out
- FB Jack Westover (ankle) questionable
- OL Jared Wilson (concussion) out
- CB Charles Woods (foot) questionable
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Dolphins at Patriots picks and predictions
Prediction
Patriots 38, Dolphins 13
The Patriots (-700) will cost you 7 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for nowhere near enough reward. In other words, a $100 bet will net a profit of just $14.29.
You can’t trust the Dolphins, though. New England is playing for too much, and Miami is likely to be down Achane, it could be missing Waddle, too, and it will be challenging for the Dolphins to even score.
AVOID.
PATRIOTS -11.5 (-110) is worth a play, but the degree of you bet depends upon the availability of players for the Dolphins. Achane is already doubtful, so consider him out. If Waddle is also sidelined, go rather aggressively on the Patriots, as they’re playing for the No. 1 seed, and they’ll be trying to pile up the points.
OVER 45.5 (-110) is the play in this lopsided AFC battle.
The Patriots offense is good for 42, 28, 31 and 33 points in the past 4 games, cashing Over in the span. Look for the New England offense to keep its foot on the gas, as the Patriots battle for the No. 1 overall seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs.
The Dolphins allowed 30.0 points per game in the past 3 games, so look for New England to face little resistance. The Over has cashed in 3 of the past 4 games for Miami, too. Go high, and enjoy.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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