Bills suffer another heartbreaking loss, Rams win OT thriller v. Bears
Prince Grimes reacts to a chaotic NFL divisional round, highlighted by Bo Nix’s season-ending injury and heartbreaking losses for the Bills and Bears.
The NFL playoff bracket has narrowed from 14 teams competing to four battling to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at Super Bowl 60 in Santa Clara.
The upstart New England Patriots will attempt to continue their resurgence and usher in a new dynasty, while the Denver Broncos will aim to end the Pats’ season, backed by a tremendous defense, in the AFC championship game at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks will face the Los Angeles Rams in an NFC West rivalry matchup in the NFC championship. Will the Seahawks soar to Santa Clara next month, or can the Rams continue their impressive run on the road?
Before the NFC and AFC title games begin, the USA TODAY Sports staff sits at the table and provides predictions and picks for which teams will win and represent the AFC and NFC at Super Bowl 60 next month.
NFL playoff predictions: Picks to win AFC, NFC championship games
Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer: Patriots (AFC) | Seahawks (NFC)
As much as my heart loves the story of Jarrett Stidham leading the Broncos to victory at home to bring them once again to a Super Bowl at Levi’s Stadium, my mind tells me it’s too tall a task. This is no slight on the Broncos’ impressive defense or Sean Payton’s abilities as a play-caller. It’s just asking too much from a Broncos team that’s lived on the edge for most of the year.
Denver’s gone 12-2 in games decided by eight points or less this season, including the divisional-round playoff win against Buffalo. That Bills team needed a few bounces of the ball to go against them in order for the Broncos to get the win. With how this Patriots defense is playing, that just won’t happen again.
The Broncos defense can likely get after Patriots quarterback Drake Maye with their stable of pass rushers. Maye – despite his fumbles – is playing too well overall and the offense can keep Denver from gaining the upper hand on that side of the ball. With Nix in, this could be close, but Maye and the Patriots’ defense get the edge.
The rubber match that many hoped for to decide the NFC title should be another close affair. Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold will have to face his newest nemesis – Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula – for a third time this season. Shula and the Rams’ defense forced six of Darnold’s 14 interceptions during the regular season.
Klint Kubiak is a first-year offensive play-caller and that could lead to some spurts on offense against the Rams’ defense. But this pick rests mainly on the other side of the ball.
The Seahawks’ boa constrictor defense gradually forces offenses to give up the will to get yards. Yes, Seattle was far from tested in the divisional round by a near-toothless 49ers offense but they played who was in front of them and absolutely dominated on a near-historic level. In an NFL that sees offenses dictate the state of play, Seattle’s defense forces opposing offenses to adjust.
I’m sticking with the Seahawks from my prior pick entering the playoffs. Two key reasons beyond the Seahawks’ defense give me confidence: Sean McVay and special teams. McVay’s play-calling on offense has seemed questionable at multiple points during the playoffs. It’s been head-scratching fourth down choices and passing when running the ball seems far more sensible. The Rams made the rare move to fire a coordinator mid-season to make a change in special teams. Given how well that area of the ball operates for Seattle, they’ll have a definitive edge that could loom large in key moments (the floor is yours, Rashid Shaheed).
Everyone’s yearning for 2016 on social media these days. A throwback to 2014 for the Super Bowl will have to do with the Seahawks meeting the Patriots once again.
Jacob Camenker, NFL writer: Patriots (AFC) | Seahawks (NFC)
The Broncos’ shouldn’t be written off even after Bo Nix was knocked out for the season with an ankle injury. Denver’s Super Bowl chances were always going to be tied more to its defense than anything else, and Jarrett Stidham, while inexperienced as a starter, has been in Sean Payton’s system for three seasons now.
Still, the Patriots defense is playing at an elite level. It limited the Chargers and Texans to 19 combined points while racking up a combined six turnovers and nine sacks against Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud. As such, Mike Vrabel’s squad should limit Stidham while New England’s offense should remain efficient enough to earn a win, provided Drake Maye can shake the fumbling issues he has endured in his first two playoff games (six total fumbles, three lost).
On the other side of the bracket, it’s hard to recommend fading the Seahawks. It’s not just because they completely thrashed the 49ers in the divisional round. It’s also because the Rams haven’t been at their best in recent weeks, only narrowly beating the Panthers and Bears to reach the NFC championship game.
Seattle’s defense also remains the best overall unit remaining in the postseason. Mike McDonald’s group hasn’t yet sacked Matthew Stafford across two matchups, but expect them to put pressure on the veteran quarterback.
It’s also worth noting Stafford hasn’t quite looked the same since banging his finger against the Panthers in the wild-card round too. The potential 2025 NFL MVP’s accuracy has been spotty since he suffered the injury, so that will be something to watch in this game against Seattle’s elite and opportunistic stop unit.
Jack McKessy, NFL writer: Patriots (AFC) | Rams (NFC)
It would be fun to bet on Broncos head coach Sean Payton reaching deep in his bag to make the most out of backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham‘s skill set in his first career playoff appearance. However, it’s difficult to have enough faith in a Stidham-led offense keeping up with the Patriots, especially if the Broncos’ defense struggles to keep New England off the board as it struggled against Buffalo last week. If Bills quarterback Josh Allen didn’t make several self-inflicted mistakes, Denver’s not in the AFC championship game.
The Patriots have looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders in their first two playoff games under head coach Mike Vrabel, particularly on defense. New England sacked Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert six times in the wild-card round and got to Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud three times last week. The Pats’ defense also recovered two fumbles across the two games and picked off Stroud four times in the divisional round.
Offensively, New England has an edge in the form of second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who finished the regular season among MVP favorites. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson also just had 70 yards on 16 carries against the Texans’ defense. The Patriots just seem to be in a position to overwhelm the Broncos on both sides, but particularly on defense, in the AFC championship.
As far as the NFC title game, there’s a part of me that wants to flip my pre-playoff game pick from the Rams to the Seahawks after Seattle dominated the 49ers in the divisional round and Los Angeles barely eked out a win in Chicago.
However, we’re sticking with my pick. The Seahawks’ divisional-round matchup was against a very banged-up 49ers team that ultimately couldn’t overcome so many injuries to so many star players. The Rams’ game last week was in the bitter Chicago cold – conditions that quarterback Matthew Stafford has historically struggled in. They won’t have to play in weather quite as cold in Seattle this coming week.
Additionally, the Rams failed to capitalize on one of their greatest offensive strengths for a significant portion of last week’s divisional round game: their running game. Los Angeles finished the 2025 regular season with a 50.1% rushing success rate, which was easily the most of any team. When the Rams started running the ball more in the second half and overtime last week, they found more success on offense, while Stafford and the passing game struggled in the cold.
Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold has historically struggled against the Rams, particularly in the playoffs. Even in Seattle’s one win over L.A. in the regular season, Darnold threw a couple of interceptions and took four sacks. The Seahawks won after Rams kicker Harrison Mevis missed a 48-yard field goal near the end of regulation. Seattle converted a two-point try in overtime to take the victory in a game that looked all Rams until the final 10 minutes of regulation.
I expect head coach Sean McVay to have learned his lessons from that regular-season loss in Seattle and close divisional-round win over the Bears.
Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer: Broncos (AFC) | Seahawks (NFC)
Everyone has spent the week eulogizing the Denver Broncos, suggesting that the team has no chance to win the AFC championship game against the New England Patriots on the back of a great defense, simply because they’re starting a backup quarterback. See how ridiculous that sounds?
Jarrett Stidham might not be a future Hall of Fame quarterback, but Denver doesn’t need him to be one. He just can’t be the reason the Broncos lose. Easy enough, right?
Drake Maye has a serious case of “fumblitis” through his first two playoff starts, both of which came with the comforts of home. Nik Bonitto must be salivating at the thought of beating Will Campbell, the rookie left tackle who has struggled, off the edge and getting a pivotal takeaway. Plus, the Broncos have history on their side. Denver has historically defeated New England in the playoffs at home, posting a 4-0 record in those contests.
It’s crazy to think that Sean Payton, who is no stranger to starting backup quarterbacks, can’t find a way to win on Sunday. Drew Brees missed five games in 2019 for the 13-3 Saints. Teddy Bridgewater went 5-0 as a starter during Brees’ absence. Taysom Hill went 3-1 as a starter the following year. Payton’s Saints then went 9-8 in the 2021 season, despite starting four different quarterbacks. Have a little faith, would you?
On the NFC side, we’re about to see the third and final matchup of the season between the Seahawks and Rams. It was Seattle that got the last regular-season laugh, which bodes well for the home team in the NFC championship game.
It is just the sixth time that a conference championship game will feature a divisional matchup. The winner of the game went on to win the Super Bowl all five times, with the division winner being victorious in four of those matchups.
Special teams have plagued the Rams all season, especially in their matchups against the Seahawks – particularly with Ethan Evans’ punting. L.A. has flirted with losing to the Panthers and Bears in the first two rounds. Now they face a step up in competition when they visit the Seahawks for a third-straight road game, their fifth in the last six weeks.
Everyone is busy reminiscing about 2016, but the NFL will be flashing back to 2014 when the Seahawks and Broncos meet again the Super Bowl. Next stop, Santa Clara.
Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor: Patriots AFC | Rams NFC
Could we see a miracle run for Denver with their backup QB? Unlikely.
Sure, Denver’s overtime win over the Bills was its 13th comeback win of the season and it was their sixth win in which they’ve trailed in the fourth quarter. However, they are nearly touchdown underdogs, and Jarrett Stidham hasn’t thrown a pass in an NFL game in over two calendar years.
New England’s defense is strong with CB Christian Gonzales and DT Milton Williams. In 11 games with Williams (Weeks 1-10, Weeks 18-divisional round), New England’s defense ranks fourth in EPA/play, sixth in EPA/pass, and fourth in EPA per rush. They rank second in EPA per play and third in EPA per pass when Williams and Gonzalez are available. Denver would need to run the ball to take the weight off of Stidham and the Pats have the pieces in place to make it difficult for Denver’s offense. The Patriots are 16-0 this season with their defensive anchors healthy.
If the Patriots’ offensive line (13th in pass block win rate) can hold up in the trenches against the Broncos’ dangerous defensive rush (third in pass rush win rate), Drake Maye should do enough to win this game. The offense doesn’t rely on any one playmaker and can attack the middle of the field – an area of weakness for Denver. We just watched Dalton Kincaid catch six passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. Henry can replicate that and play a pivotal role. Maye’s ability to protect the ball will be pivotal in defeating Denver.
In the NFC, it wasn’t long ago that Seattle needed a miracle game-winning field goal to defeat 44-year-old Philip Rivers and then a couple of quirky plays where the ball – quite literally – bounced their way to beat the Rams in overtime in Week 16.
Yes, Seattle just crushed a decimated 49ers team but the Rams have overcome adversity multiple times already this postseason on the road. Los Angeles is prepared for the moment. The Seahawks lost running back Zach Charbonnet to a season-ending knee injury and Kenneth Walker III will be tasked with carrying the load.
If Seattle’s run game struggles and gets behind the sticks, they will need to protect Sam Darnold against a Rams’ pass rush that generates pressure at the fourth-highest rate. Darnold’s completion percentage jumps to 72.6% when not under pressure, compared to just 55.5% when pressured.
The Rams have been the best team all season despite not owning the No. 1 seed. They will win this game and earn a spot in Super Bowl 60 behind a prolific offense that ranked first in DVOA and an underrated defense that ranked third in DVOA, according to FTN. WR Davante Adams made a pair of crucial catches in Chicago and has clearly recovered from his hamstring injury. Matthew Stafford has been the front-runner for MVP for most of the season and is simply better than Sam Darnold.
NFL playoff teams remaining
AFC
- Denver Broncos
- New England Patriots
NFC
- Seattle Seahawks
- Los Angeles Rams
