Mike Vrabel finds himself in a very familiar position, sitting at 1-2 through three weeks.
This year marks his fourth straight season leading his team to a 1-2 record to start the year, dating back to his final two years with the Titans in 2022 and 2023, and his first year with the Patriots a year ago.
If New England fans want to find some solace in the current state of the Patriots, there’s this: Vrabel got his team to 2-2 all three of those times, and he improved to 2-2 the only other year of his coaching career that began with a 1-2 record (2019).
Will that actually help the 2026 New England Patriots beat the Bills in Buffalo this weekend? Well, no. But it at least provides evidence that amid some early-season panic, Vrabel can maintain a steady ship.
(For what it’s worth: Half of those seasons ended with long postseason runs, as the 2019 Titans made it to the AFC Championship Game, and last year’s Patriots of course made the Super Bowl. The 2022 and ’23 Titans finished 7-10 and 6-11, respectively, leading to the end of his Tennessee tenure.)
That may all just be history, but the Patriots are going to need every advantage — real, imagined, or otherwise — as they head into a tough matchup in Buffalo.
Recent head-to-head matchups
Gone are the days of Tom Brady sleepwalking his way to a season sweep of the Bills, and it was his departure from New England that represented the stark shift in AFC East dominance.
Brady won his first game against Buffalo in 2001, starting his career with a 20-1 record against the Bills. He suffered a blip in 2011, technically took a loss for a Week 17 loss in 2014, but finished his Patriots career with a preposterous 32-3 record against Buffalo.
The Bills have gotten their revenge since he left, though, going 9-4 against New England since Brady left, including a franchise-affirming 47-17 playoff victory in the 2021 season.
The Patriots have managed splits vs. Buffalo in each of the past two years, though the Bills kinda-sorta lost on purpose in Week 18 in 2024, costing the Patriots the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Last six matchups:
- Week 7, 2023: 29-25 Patriots in New England
- Week 17, 2023: 27-21 Bills in Buffalo
- Week 16, 2024: 24-21 Bills in Buffalo
- Week 18, 2024: 23-16 Patriots in New England
- Week 5, 2025: 23-20 Patriots in Buffalo
- Week 15, 2025: 35-31 Bills in New England
Key Stats
Something’s gotta give
Nobody’s scored fewer points than the Patriots this year. They’re tied for last with Miami, scoring 12 points per game. They’re also 21st in total yards per game,
The Bills enter the game with the 21st-ranked scoring defense, ranking 25th in yards allowed.
At the same time, the Bills will carry the league’s No. 1 scoring offense into the game, opposed by the NFL’s sixth-ranked scoring defense.
The strengths are matched up against strengths, so obviously, something’s gotta give.
Unfortunately for New England, the dam might have broken last week in Jacksonville, when they faced Trevor Lawrence. The defensive stats compiled against Drew Lock and Aaron Rodgers may have been put in context when Lawrence threw three touchdowns against them.
And while Josh Allen may appear invincible at the moment, he turned the ball over three times last week with two picks and a fumble. The Patriots only have three takeaways this season, but if they’re going to compete in this one, they’re going to need to force Allen to cough it up more than once.
DJ Moore vs. Pats
While the Patriots went with AJ for their big wide receiver addition, the Bills turned to DJ.
Nine-year NFL veteran DJ Moore was traded to the Bills in March (along with a fifth-round pick) in exchange for a second-round pick. It may not have been an “all-in” move for the Bills, but it was a significant investment in draft capital at the receiver position, in an effort to give a No. 1-type receiver to Josh Allen.
Moore got off to a great start, catching five passes for 100 yards and a touchdown in Houston in Week 1, but he wasn’t targeted in Week 2. Last week, he caught six passes (on 10 targets) for 67 yards.
Moore has only played the Patriots twice in his career — in 2024 with the Bears and in 2021 with the Panthers — catching six passes on 13 targets for 56 total yards. Moore’s teams scored nine total points in those two games.
The status of Christian Gonzalez, who missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, will obviously be a significant factor in Moore’s potential output on Sunday.
Patriots’ keys to victory
The obvious
The Red Sox are not going to win many games with Drake Maye playing the way he’s been playing. He’s been uncomfortable from the start of the season, and the fine folks of Buffalo will be doing their best to keep him that way every time the Patriots have the ball on Sunday.
Given the state of the entire offense, it would be particularly unreasonable to expect a 400-yard, 4-touchdown day out of Maye. But a positive step, and the key to competing, will be eliminating the unnecessary turnovers.
Last week’s end-zone interception defied explanation, and it was the first step in a 14-3 game becoming a blowout. That type of turnover, along with the ongoing fumbling issues, can’t happen against Buffalo, as the Bills are a safe bet to score north of 30. The Patriots don’t have the firepower to be losing any possessions along the way, and Maye is most in control of that.
Use Ben Brown
When Mike Onwenu got hurt in Week 2, the Patriots did not use their best interior backup to replace him. Instead, Ben Brown stayed on the sideline while Greg Van Roten filled in.
In Week 3, instead of using Brown, they stuck with Van Roten. And even when Van Roten got hurt, the Patriots didn’t turn to Brown. Instead, they went with Walter Rause, who played as bad of a game as an NFL player can ever put on tape.
Vrabel said the team has stayed away from Brown because he’s the primary backup at center. So, if Brown got hurt, and if starting center Jared Wilson got hurt, the Patriots would be in a whole lot of trouble.
But, well, enough with that. Brown is a solid guard, and every snap taken by Rouse or someone else is a snap where Maye risks getting hit. Protecting Maye should be priority No. 1 for everyone employed in Foxboro, and a simple step toward that goal will be simply using Brown at right guard.
Bills’ keys to victory
Pressure
The Bills’ defense may be suspect at this point in time, but they’ve been able to harass quarterbacks. They’ve recorded multiple sacks in all three of their games, getting Jared Goff four times in Week 2 and C.J. Stroud three times in Week 1.
Gregory Rousseau has driven that charge, with six sacks (plus six more QB hits), while Bradley Chubb also has six QB hits.
With the injuries on the right side of the Patriots’ offensive line, the Bills’ pass-rushing group will be salivating on every third-and-long at the prospect of getting after Maye and forcing the QB into a game-altering mistake.
Keep Cooking
Given how dominant Josh Allen is, James Cook can sometimes operate in the shadows. But the Patriots’ defense and coaching staff will be well aware that Cook can wreck a game all on his own.
Knowing that and stopping it, though, are two different things. And while everyone will always hyperfocus on the quarterback matchup, Cook — who’s run for 289 yards and two TDs over the past two weeks — is capable of dominating this game himself.
Prediction
Is it possible that the Patriots flip this game on its head immediately and roll their way to a completely unexpected lopsided win over the Bills? Sure. Anything is possible, and stranger things have happened. That’s how sports work.
But really, it’s hard to logically feel great about anything for the Patriots in this matchup.
With a star-studded injury report that’s featured Christian Gonzalez, Christian Barmore, Morgan Moses, Dre’Mont Jones and even Drake Maye, the Patriots have been hit hard by injuries already. Being anything less than 100 percent for a matchup against this Bills offense is a recipe for a long, long day.
I do expect an improvement for the offense, largely due to the fact that it can’t really get any worse.
Score: 40-21 Bills
