The New England Patriots stumbled out of the gates to begin the season, but an upset win against the Buffalo Bills in Week 4 has gotten them back on track.
They can build on that momentum in Week 5 when they host the Las Vegas Raiders, who suffered their first loss of the season when they fell to the Kansas City Chiefs last week. If the Raiders can pull off another win, they’ll further prove their legitimacy as we get into the heart of this year’s NFL season.
Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet for this AFC showdown.
Raiders vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread
- Raiders +3.5 (-110)
- Patriots -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Raiders +160
- Patriots -192
Total
- OVER 45.5 (-105)
- UNDER 45.5 (-115)
Raiders vs. Patriots How to Watch
- Date: Sunday, October 11
- Time: 1:00pm ET
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Raiders record: 3-1
- Patriots record: 2-2
Raiders vs. Patriots Betting Trends
- The Raiders have covered the spread in the last three meetings between these two teams
- The Raiders are 4-0 against the spread this season
- The Patriots are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games
- The UNDER is 3-1 in Patriots games this season
Raiders vs. Patriots Key Player to Watch
- Drake Maye, QB – New England Patriots
Drake Maye finally had a bounce-back performance in Week 4, throwing for 269 yards, three touchdowns, and just one interception while adding 54 rushing yards. If he can continue performing at that level, the Patriots can get back to being a playoff team. With that being said, he still needs to find a way to reduce his interceptions. He has thrown seven of them through the first four weeks.
Raiders vs. Patriots Prediction and Best Bet
There’s no denying the Raiders have earned their record to begin their season; their metrics have been strong, and they’re 3-1 on the year, but with that being said, I think we can sell high on them after they’ve covered the spread each week. Before the season began, the Patriots were 8.5-point favorites in this game on the lookahead line. Now, the line is down to 3.5. Are we putting enough stock into a four-game sample size to move the line five whole points? I’m not quite convinced of that.
The Patriots had some poor luck in the first few weeks, and despite the slow start, their defense has still played well, ranking eighth in opponent success rate. That’s above the Raiders’ defense in that metric, which comes in at 11th.
A major concern I have about the Raiders is that they continue to struggle to run the ball. They rank 29th in rush EPA and 30th in rush success rate. That means that, in order for them to move the ball offensively, they have to rely on Kirk Cousins’ arm. While that has worked to a certain extent early in the season, do you trust him that much moving forward? I certainly don’t.
I’ll lay the points with New England.
Pick: Patriots -3.5 (-110) via DraftKings
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